See Part 2/3 of this post for more information.
Notably, Asians, Jews, and Native Americans/American Indians, the next largest ethnic groups in the United States, do not end up with their own states in this partition/collapse scheme, and I wanted to address that. This is because they do not constitute a large enough geographic majority in any region of the country, excluding Hawaii, where some may emigrate to. With regards to their prospects, I imagine Asians—particularly East Asians—would be welcome in almost any of the successor republics, although they might come as a dividing issue in the White American Republic. Asians, particularly women, are as equally likely to marry non-Asians, as Asians, which is a stark contrast compared to every other racial group in the United States. As an identity, Asian American cannot survive with that degree of outbreeding. Many Asian women marry and have children with white men, and many white men who opt for Asian women are racially conscious but not nationalist. White-Asian couples are also wealthier than white-white or Asian-Asian couples according to statistics, and so financial incentives may lead to “honorary white” status of Asian spouses in the White American Republic, just as Asians in segregated South Africa were granted such privileges. This won’t come unanimously but as compromise, and the winning argument would likely insist that there is very little to gain from turning them away and that their descendants will be less and less Asian each generation. There will also be the inevitable specter of the “it could be worse argument,” which would cite other possible hybrids as being a greater racial threat. I do not necessarily endorse this outcome, but see it as plausible. But logically speaking in terms of the partition scheme I have speculated, Asians and mixed-Asians, or any mixed people, would naturally be at home in the multicultural successor states.
Jews will likely concentrate in the multicultural states, since economic prospects for them will be poor in the African American Republic, many in the White American Republic will be hostile to them, and the overt Catholicism of the State of Aztlan will be off-putting. Then again, the partition of the United States will probably be a push factor for many anglophone American Jews to emigrate and go to Israel/Canada/Australia/Britain. Jewish identity in the contemporary United States is weakening though, as Jews marry non-Jews at very high rates and their offspring are usually not raised religiously. Jewish influence however, will likely maintain itself for years to come, because of their disproportionate representation in media and academia (especially Ivy League colleges), in addition to higher income rate than any other group in the United States. Ironically, as the tribe grows smaller, it’s per capita wealth may grow larger—less descendants competing for the same amount of money. But if partition does happen in the near-distant future, it will be a numbers game, and population will be chief among those numbers. Less Jews will ultimately mean less influence on the outcome of the successor states, certainly less influence than blacks or Hispanics. The only area where Jewish individuals (much less so communities given their dwindling trajectories) will have substantial wealth or influence will probably be the United States of the Atlantic, as it contains New York, home to the largest non-Israeli urban population of Jewish people.
With the partition of the United States, all tribal treaties and reservations essentially become void. Any individuals with at least 3 Indian grandparents and who live on tribal lands should be granted some sort of autonomy or freedom of movement status, while those who do not meet those criteria may still be identified as Native American but will not be granted such privileges. There is really no viable state that can easily be created for them, other than in perhaps Alaska or from counties in the Dakotas. The latter is especially unlikely given that the Dakotas as a whole are white-majority and possess abundant natural resources that a white majority should not want to give up. Likely outcome: American Indians migrate to the multicultural states.
Hispanic whites are another big question group. People who “originate” from the Spanish-speaking countries of the Americas come in a variety of phenotypes and are difficult to classify in many cases. But often they are really not that difficult to classify at all. If someone looks white and happens to have a Spanish name, they are probably mostly if not wholly of Iberian Spanish descent, and as is typically agreed by white nationalists, all indigenous European groups are white. Are Hispanics with a few drops of Aztec blood any less white than Appalachian Scotch-Irish with a few drops of American Indian? Not really, so long as they match one of the many white phenotypes that exist. Now, obviously, there are Hispanics who are very clearly non-white. Minimally small numbers of those who are assimilated into Anglo culture have a shot at integration into a white ethnostate, but most would ultimately be better off in one of the multicultural states.
Another concern is over what will become of the federal government’s assets and debts. Military hardware and nuclear weaponry could be proportionately divided, although I would personally prefer the bulk of the stockpile goes to the white ethnostate. Bases overseas would be closed and their equipment repatriated or sold off to foreign countries. China is the biggest holder of debt, which could prove problematic. One solution is to sell territory to the Chinese, who will probably buy it, given their ridiculous lust for non-contiguous territory. No Caribbean holdings should be given to a non US-successor state; however, Pacific islands are another story. The United States has a lot of irrelevant territory and vassals in that ocean which could be sold off to the Chinese. There will be little support for this among the population of these islands, but they had no say in their annexation to the United States in the first place. The United States could also forgive whatever Chinese debt it currently holds, rather than divide it among the successor states.
I hope you enjoyed/were triggered by my esoteric LARPing, and thank you for reading.